Il domino dei “subprime”: la crisi finanziaria
E’ arrivata come un fulmine a ciel sereno, non prevista neppure dagli addetti ai lavori: è la maggiore crisi finanziaria degli ultimi decenni e presenta scenari inediti. In poco tempo sono scomparsi, perché falliti o rilevati da altre società, istituti finanziari di primaria importanza, fra cui note banche d’investimento come Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Merryl Linch; mentre altre come Goldman Sachs e Morgan Stanley subiscono gravi perdite. Il cataclisma non riguarda solo gli USA, ma si sta allargando alle maggiori piazze finanziarie europee, tanto che il governo britannico ha nazionalizzato banche sull’orlo del fallimento. Le cause sono molteplici: in primis la crisi dei mutui “subprime”, ovvero concessi con eccessiva leggerezza a clienti già insolventi, contando sul continuo rialzo del mercato immobiliare. Molte famiglie non sono state più in grado di pagare rate di mutui in continua crescita e hanno messo in vendita le loro abitazioni, tanto da provocare nell’ultimo anno un decremento dei prezzi degli immobili del 20%. Tali crediti, ormai inesigibili, erano stati nel frattempo “spacchettati” dalla banca d’origine e rivenduti ad altre istituti finanziari (banche, assicurazioni) e ad investitori istituzionali (fondi comuni di investimento, fondi pensione), tanto che al momento è arduo capire quanto pesino sul portafoglio delle varie istituzioni, anche fuori dagli Stati Uniti. Similmente, è stato concesso in maniera “allegra” il credito al consumo (credito di importo medio-basso per finanziare spese come l’acquisto del televisore, degli elettrodomestici, delle vacanze). Inoltre le banche, ma anche molte aziende, hanno investito sui titoli“derivati” come swap, future, option, costruiti sulla scommessa di apprezzamento o deprezzamento di una azione, di una obbligazione o dell’indice di Borsa. La “finanza creativa” consiste proprio nello smontare e rimontare in vario modo questi strumenti, con il risultato di moltiplicare i guadagni, ma anche i rischi. Infatti, in finanza, quanto più un (possibile) guadagno è elevato, tanto più lo è il rischio sotteso, concetto che spesso gli investitori tendono a dimenticare. Negli ultimi anni, soprattutto nei paesi anglosassoni, si è avuta una deregolamentazione selvaggia del mercato finanziario, che nel breve periodo ha permesso una grande crescita dei guadagni, ma che nel lungo inevitabilmente ha mostrato la corda. Si tratta di un sistema “gonfiato”- negli USA la finanzia rappresenta un quarto del Prodotto Interno Lordo (PIL), ovvero di tutto quanto si produce nel paese – e caratterizzato da stipendi astronomici (il presidente di Lehman Brothers l’anno scorso ha intascato qualcosa come 45 milioni di dollari) e legati a risultati nel breve periodo. Invece di redistribuire gli utili ai soli azionisti, come la teoria economica classica vorrebbe, li si è redistribuiti anche ai dirigenti, cosa che ha depauperato la solidità degli istituti finanziari. Questa crisi di enormi proporzioni riguarderà, a cascata, anche l’industria, il commercio, le entrate fiscali dello Stato, quindi i servizi che esso potrà erogare e in definitiva il tenore di vita dei cittadini. Già l’indotto della finanza è vastissimo, comprendendo società di consulenza, hotel, ristoranti e negozi di lusso, comparti che subiranno perdite e forse un calo di occupazione.
Essendo il commercio sempre più globale, neppure gli esperti si azzardano a fare previsioni su quanto questo crollo coinvolgerà anche l’Europa e soprattutto quanto durerà. Il governo americano, dopo infinite polemiche, ha varato un piano di salvataggio da 700 milioni di dollari per calmierare la crisi, evitare ulteriori fallimenti e rassicurare l’opinione pubblica. Perfino i due candidati alle elezioni presidenziali hanno sospeso per qualche giorno la campagna elettorale in nome dell’”emergenza nazionale” e lo stesso esito esisto delle elezioni sarà influenzato da ciò che accadrà nel prossimo mese e da come Mc Cain e Obama si rapporteranno alla difficile congiuntura. Molti americani, soprattutto fra i conservatori, sono ostili ad un piano tanto costoso, che inevitabilmente avrà ripercussioni sulle loro tasche e sulla crescita economica degli anni a venire. Il cittadino medio pensa che “quando le cose vanno bene, i finanzieri guadagnano, quando vanno male, paga lo Stato”; certamente i banchieri hanno dimostrato un’incoscienza incredibile, continuando a erogare mutui ad altissimo rischio quando negli Stati Uniti già da un anno la “bolla immobiliare“ era emersa in tutta la sua gravità. Salvare “lavoratori” nella gran parte dei casi tanto ricchi non appare una priorità, inoltre negli USA c’è ancora la convinzione che ogni intervento pubblico nell’economia sia dannoso, sapendo il mercato regolarsi da sé.
Se questo poteva essere vero ai tempi di Adam Smith, il padre del liberismo nel Settecento, certamente non lo è più oggi, in cui le variabili coinvolte sono molto più complesse e numerose e non risparmiano alcun paese del mondo. In gioco ci sono migliaia di posti di lavoro, non solo negli Stati Uniti, e l’andamento dell’economia mondiale, che mai come in questi ultimi anni è stata globale; da quando, nel 2001 Cina e India sono entrate nel World Trade Organisation (WTO), l’organizzazione che presidia il commercio mondiale. Stupisce che quasi nessuno dei blasonati esperti di finanza abbia previsto una crisi di tale devastante portata, neppure all’interno degli istituti di credito interessati.
Appaiono da rivedere anche ruolo e organizzazione degli organi di controllo dei mercati, che evidentemente non sono stati in grado di assolvere al loro dovere comunicando per tempo il pericolo ed evitando che i buchi di bilancio delle banche assumessero proporzioni gigantesche. Probabilmente l’intero sistema scaturito dagli accordi di Bretton Woods, che nel 1944 stabilì le regole delle relazioni commerciali e finanziarie tra i principali paesi industrializzati del mondo, è superato e occorre ridiscutere gli eccessi del “turbocapitalismo”, che negli ultimi due decenni si è imposto come unico sistema economico auspicabile. Mi auguro che questo momento difficile possa servire a ridimensionare l’importanza della finanza, che è un indispensabile supporto all’economia reale, ma non può sostituir visi, e magari a ripensare tutto il sistema di valori occidentale, basati sul consumismo e su una crescita che si immaginava senza limiti. Ragioni di ordine economico, ecologico e morale lo impongono. In questo contesto, l’Italia sembra avere una posizione non troppo esposta: nel nostro paese per fortuna il credito al consumo muove i primi passi, anche se negli ultimi anni ha conosciuto tassi di crescita esponenziali, e i mutui vengono concessi dietro garanzia.
Ciò non ha impedito speculazioni sul titolo Unicredit e crolli vertiginosi della Borsa di Milano. Dispiace constatare ancora una volta la mancanza di coesione all’interno dell’Unione Europea, che non ha fatto fronte comune all’avanzata della crisi, lasciando che ciascun paese prendesse autonomamente le opportune contromisure. E’ l’ennesima occasione mancata dall’Europa per porsi come forza politica paritetica rispetto agli Stati Uniti. Comunque, è ancora troppo presto per valutare con esattezza il contraccolpo, ad esempio sui fondi pensione, cui molti lavoratori hanno affidato il loro benessere da anziani e che in qualche caso si sono spinti su investimenti speculativi. Ma siccome “business is business”, vi sono già studi legali e società di consulenza che si offrono di traghettare fuori dalla crisi le imprese finanziarie in difficoltà…
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